Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Patrick WisdomBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Wisdom homered to left center (432 feet), Swanson scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Gomes hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Jones homered to center (391 feet).3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Rodgers homered to center (385 feet), Wynns scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Gomes doubled to left, Suzuki scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Fair odds
- CHC -139
- COL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.7 – 5.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +103 Elo | CHC 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 3022–58 | Road vs home | 44–3613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–3 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.