Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Elehuris MonteroBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy singled to right, Freeman scored.11–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Wong scored.10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 6Jones singled to center, Blackmon scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 6Freeman homered to right center (412 feet), Taylor scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 5Montero homered to left center (416 feet).7–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Wong singled to right, Outman scored.7–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored, Outman to second.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Taylor singled to center, Peralta scored and Rosario scored.5–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Rosario reached on infield single to first, Hernández scored, Peralta to third.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Peralta singled to left, Muncy scored and Outman scored, Hernández to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -126
- COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.1 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +24 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 1.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +84 Elo | LAD 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3043–32 | Road vs home | 35–4023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 8–2 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.