Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting3-4
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jones homered to right (391 feet).1–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 6Outman struck out swinging, Heyward scored on Suter wild pitch, Hernández to third on wild pitch by Suter.1–3
- 6Outman struck out, Heyward scored, Outman to first on passed ball by Wynns, Hernández to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 30–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Montero singled to center, Bryant scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Rodgers grounded out to second, Jones scored, Bryant to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Bryant doubled to left, Tovar scored, Jones to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Fair odds
- LAD -131
- COL +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.2 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −9 | LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +124 Elo | LAD 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3043–31 | Road vs home | 34–4024th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 8–1 COL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.