Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Flores grounded into fielder's choice to third, Slater scored, Estrada safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Muncy.1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Betts singled to left, Peralta scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Fitzgerald homered to left center (414 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- SF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.1 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −5 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Tristan Beck: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +92 Elo | LAD 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3046–33 | Road vs home | 44–3510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 6–5 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.