Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.0 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rosario grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Hernández scored, Wong out at second, Barnes to third.5–14
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–14
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–14
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–14
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–14
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–14
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–14
- 8Trejo singled to center, Montero scored, Bouchard to second.4–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–14
- 7Blackmon doubled to right, B. Doyle scored.4–13
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–13
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–12
- 7B. Doyle tripled to right, Trejo scored and Wynns scored.4–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–12
- 7Wynns singled to left, Montero scored, Trejo to second.4–10
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 7Muncy grounded out to second, Barnes scored, Rosario to second, Wong to third.4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 4Jones doubled to second, Blackmon scored and Rodgers scored.3–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 3Bouchard homered to left center (458 feet).3–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 3Montero homered to center (429 feet), Jones scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Jones grounded into fielder's choice to first, Tovar scored, Rodgers out at second.3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.9 – 5.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −20 | LAD: Ryan Yarbrough: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +148 Elo | LAD 70.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 4th of 3045–32 | Road vs home | 35–4224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 10–2 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 12.