San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Austin SlaterBatting3-3
- Logan WebbPitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Conforto singled to left, Luciano scored and Pederson scored, Bailey to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Machado singled to left, Bogaerts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Fair odds
- SF -106
- SD +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +10 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.323rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 43–329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 6–4 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.