St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to left (377 feet), Soto scored.2–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Walker tripled to center, Goldschmidt scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 6Machado homered to center (424 feet).1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 6Winn homered to left (378 feet).1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Sullivan singled to center, Grisham scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Fair odds
- SD -120
- STL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +54 Elo | SD 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 3034–41 | Road vs home | 40–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–1 SD in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.