Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adam WainwrightPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 4Contreras homered to left (385 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −13 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Adam Wainwright: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–35 | Road vs home | 31–4125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.