Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas doubled to left, Castellanos scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Schwarber homered to right (358 feet), Marsh scored and Rojas scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Goldschmidt doubled to left, Winn scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Marsh hit sacrifice fly to center, Stott scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bohm singled to left, Turner scored, Bohm out stretching at first.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.0 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −6 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3037–35 | Road vs home | 30–4025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–0 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.