Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jackson StephensPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II homered to right (407 feet).5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Olson homered to left (354 feet).4–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Marsh homered to right center (400 feet).3–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Turner doubled to center, Cave scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Cave tripled to right, Sosa scored.3–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Olson homered to right (386 feet), Lopez scored and Acuña Jr. scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 1Sosa doubled to left, Harper scored and Stott scored, Castellanos to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Castellanos singled to right, Turner scored, Stott to second, Harper to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to second, Turner to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- PHI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −9 | ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3047–24 | Road vs home | 42–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–2 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.