Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arcia doubled to left, Pillar scored.10–8
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–8
- 10Pillar singled to center, Wall scored.9–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 9Harper homered to left center (406 feet), Turner scored.8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–8
- 7Turner homered to left center (423 feet), Schwarber scored.8–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left (420 feet).8–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6Harris II homered to center (423 feet), Arcia scored.7–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5Stott doubled to right, Harper scored, Bohm thrown out at home.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Bohm singled to center, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Olson doubled to center, Riley scored and Albies scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Albies doubled to right, Harris II scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Bohm doubled to center, Harper scored and Schwarber scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Acuña Jr. reached on infield single to first, Harris II scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 5.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | 0 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +39 Elo | ATL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3046–24 | Road vs home | 42–285th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.