Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching7.1 IP, 4 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 4Pillar doubled to right, Ozuna scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Riley hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Stott singled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Riley homered to center (447 feet), Albies scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -103
- PHI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.4 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3048–25 | Road vs home | 43–307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 6–3 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.