Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rosario singled to right, Wall scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Turner homered to left center (404 feet).6–6
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball 36–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Stott homered to center (424 feet), Castellanos scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Harper homered to center (430 feet).6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Turner singled to center, Rojas scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (401 feet), Riley scored and Olson scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Acuña Jr. homered to left (424 feet), Harris II scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 4Olson homered to left center (367 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Castellanos homered to right center (388 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Fair odds
- ATL -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +6 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +23 Elo | ATL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3047–25 | Road vs home | 43–296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–3 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.