Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to center, Querecuto scored, Walker to second.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 6Realmuto singled to left, Sosa scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored, Edman to second.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to third.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Burleson singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to second.4–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Castellanos homered to left center (378 feet), Harper scored and Realmuto scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Harper grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turner scored, Bohm out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Fair odds
- PHI -101
- STL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +17 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +8 Elo | PHI 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.616th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3036–35 | Road vs home | 30–3925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.