Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker homered to left (400 feet).5–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 8Castellanos singled to left, Stott scored, Rojas to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Bohm homered to left (407 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Arenado singled to left, Burleson scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Goldschmidt homered to center (406 feet).3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Castellanos grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored on throwing error by second baseman Querecuto, Castellanos to second, Marsh out at second.3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Stott sacrificed to second, Harper scored, Bohm to second.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Arenado doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Goldschmidt doubled to right, Querecuto scored and Knizner scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −4 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–35 | Road vs home | 30–4126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 5–0 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.