Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Richie PalaciosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Drew RomPitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adames singled to left, Contreras scored, Adames to second.7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 8Monasterio hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Palacios homered to right (367 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Canha grounded into fielder's choice to catcher, Frelick scored, Perkins out at second.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Frelick doubled to center, Taylor scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Taylor doubled to left, Donaldson scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Donaldson doubled to left, Adames scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Contreras homered to left (382 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Arenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Burleson scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- STL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | MIL: Trevor Megill: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +15 Elo | MIL 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 32–4125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–4 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.