Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-4
- Zack ThompsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canha doubled to left, Frelick scored, Perkins scored and Monasterio scored.8–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Taylor homered to left (392 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Palacios singled to right, Walker scored, Herrera to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Taylor homered to left (368 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Goldschmidt singled to right, Nootbaar scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Donaldson homered to left center (415 feet), Contreras scored and Adames scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +15 | MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Zack Thompson: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–36 | Road vs home | 32–4225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–4 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.