Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Wade MileyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-3
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caratini homered to right (377 feet), Tellez scored and Monasterio scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Monasterio singled to left, Adames scored, Tellez to second.3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Frelick singled to left, Turang scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Perkins homered to right (390 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -108
- STL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | MIL: Wade Miley: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +54 Elo | MIL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3041–36 | Road vs home | 32–4325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.