St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Knizner hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.5–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 11Baker singled to center, Goldschmidt scored, Walker to second.4–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 11Palacios hit sacrifice fly to right, Edman scored, Goldschmidt to third.3–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rosario scored, Profar out at second, Batten to third.2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Winn singled to right, Baker scored and Knizner scored, Winn to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Machado singled to left, Bogaerts scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +22 | STL: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 1.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +77 Elo | SD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 21st of 3034–42 | Road vs home | 41–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–2 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.