St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Luken BakerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RomPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Padres- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baker homered to left center (411 feet), Palacios scored.2–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–12
- 6Rosario doubled to right, Campusano scored and Cooper scored, Batten to third.0–12
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–12
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 6Cooper singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Campusano to third.0–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Azocar homered to left (386 feet).0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 4Tatis Jr. singled to right, Soto scored.0–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Soto doubled to right, Kim scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 3Batten singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored, Cooper to second, Campusano to third.0–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Bogaerts scored, Kim safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Lopez.0–5
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Bogaerts tripled to right, Rosario scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −14 | STL: Drew Rom: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +45 Elo | SD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–42 | Road vs home | 41–3715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–2 SD in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.