Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keaton WinnPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Martinez homered to left (366 feet), Freeman scored and Smith scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Flores homered to left center (380 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Freeman homered to right center (423 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Flores singled to center, Wade Jr. scored, Yastrzemski to second.2–1
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Smith homered to center (409 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Fair odds
- LAD -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Keaton Winn: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +56 Elo | LAD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 4th of 3045–33 | Road vs home | 44–3410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 5–5 SF in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.