San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Garrett CooperBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Machado singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 9 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 23–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to right, Grisham scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Cooper homered to left center (392 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Fitzgerald singled to right, Conforto scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Azocar scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Estrada homered to left center (418 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 45%
- Fair odds
- SF -105
- SD +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −21 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +33 Elo | SD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 44–339th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 7–5 SF in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.