San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching8.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-1
- Alex WoodPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Soto homered to left center (398 feet), Bogaerts scored.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Kim grounded out to shortstop, Sullivan scored, Bogaerts to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Soto homered to center (396 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Fair odds
- SF -108
- SD +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +13 Elo | SD 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 44–329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 6–5 SF in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.