Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Tommy PhamBatting1-3
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4J. Abreu doubled to center, Tucker scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Fair odds
- ARI -106
- HOU +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.714th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3049–30 | Road vs home | 43–3613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 ARI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.