Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-5
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Walker scored, Herrera to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 6Pham scored on Uribe wild pitch, Herrera to second, Walker to third.4–2
- 6Pham scored on Uribe wild pitch, Herrera to second on wild pitch by Uribe, Walker to third on wild pitch by Uribe.4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Marte singled to center, Perdomo scored and Carroll scored, Marte to second.3–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Thomas homered to right (351 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Adames singled to center, Santana scored, Canha to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Yelich scored, Santana to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 49–325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ARI 5–2 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.