Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Santana doubled to left, Perkins scored.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 9Happ homered to right center (417 feet).3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Gomes grounded out to shortstop, Morel scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Candelario homered to right center (394 feet).1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Santana tripled to right, Turang scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 5Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to second, Caratini scored, Yelich out at second, Turang to third.0–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Fair odds
- MIL -118
- CHC +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.513th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3036–40 | Road vs home | 47–317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 5–5 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.