St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Tommy EdmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Edman homered to right center (387 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Winn sacrificed into double play, center to third, Knizner scored, Fermín thrown out at third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Palacios doubled to second, Nootbaar scored and Edman scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Santana doubled to right, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +90 Elo | MIL 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 21st of 3035–43 | Road vs home | 45–307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 4–6 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.