Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Berti homered to right center (411 feet), Chisholm Jr. scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 13 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 12 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball 31–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 5Taylor singled to center, Turang scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, Burger scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Bell homered to left (379 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Berti homered to center (428 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Fair odds
- MIA -101
- MIL +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 45–3510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–2 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.