New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Joey LucchesiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to center, Wendle scored, Soler to third.3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 9Nimmo doubled to right, McNeil scored and Stewart scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Hampson singled to center, Burger scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Edwards reached on bunt single to pitcher, Berti scored on throwing error by pitcher Lucchesi, Edwards to second, Fortes thrown out at third.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–1
- 3Bell doubled to right, Soler scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Lindor reached on infield single to pitcher, Alonso scored on throwing error by pitcher Garrett, Lindor to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Fair odds
- MIA -117
- NYM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | NYM: Joey Lucchesi: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +28 Elo | MIA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 3031–44 | Road vs home | 43–3310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 6–2 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.