Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (424 feet), Gurriel scored, Sánchez scored and Hampson scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–11
- 8Burger homered to center (411 feet), Myers scored.5–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Olson homered to center (433 feet).5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Harris II homered to right (399 feet).4–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 34–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 3Hampson singled to right, Burger scored, Hampson to second.3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 1Gurriel homered to left (411 feet), Bell scored and Burger scored.3–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 1Arraez homered to right center (410 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Riley homered to center (439 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Albies homered to right (391 feet), Harris II scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −22 | ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +74 Elo | ATL 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–26 | Road vs home | 41–3211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 9–2 MIA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.