Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Johnny CuetoPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Stallings doubled to left, Edwards scored, Hampson scored and Gurriel scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Hampson doubled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7Arraez homered to right (364 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Albies singled to center, Arcia scored and Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.6–4
- 6Pitch 10 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Rosario hit sacrifice fly to center, Riley scored, Olson to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Arcia scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Riley singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Harris II homered to left (384 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Burger singled to left, Stallings scored, Bell to second.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Sánchez tripled to center, De La Cruz scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -113
- MIA +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Johnny Cueto: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +80 Elo | ATL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3049–25 | Road vs home | 40–3211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 9–1 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.