Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7India homered to left center (411 feet), Maile scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Alonso homered to left center (425 feet), Lindor scored and Stewart scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Steer homered to center (411 feet), Senzel scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Marte scored on Peterson wild pitch, Bader safe at third on throwing error by catcher Narváez.1–0
- 5Marte scored on Peterson wild pitch, Bader safe at third on throwing error by catcher Narváez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +3 Elo | NYM 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–33 | Road vs home | 38–3414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.