Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Alvarez doubled to left, Locastro scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (428 feet), Votto scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Friedl scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez, Encarnacion-Strand stole third.1–1
- 2Friedl scored on throwing error by catcher Alvarez, Encarnacion-Strand stole third.1–1
- 1Mauricio singled to left, Alonso scored, Lindor to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +11 Elo | NYM 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.618th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3041–33 | Road vs home | 38–3515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.