Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Berti singled to left, Stallings scored, Gurriel to third.2–16
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–16
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–16
- 8Fortes homered to left (378 feet).2–15
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–15
- 8Harris II singled to right, d'Arnaud scored.2–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–14
- 8Ozuna homered to left (391 feet).1–14
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–14
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–14
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–14
- 7Burger homered to left center (446 feet), Bell scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.0–14
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–14
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–14
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–14
- 7Arraez singled to center, Fortes scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–10
- 6Hampson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Chisholm Jr. scored, Sánchez to second, Burger out at third.0–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 6Soler homered to left (411 feet), Arraez scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Arraez singled to center, Fortes scored, Arraez to second.0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.9 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +69 Elo | ATL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.6 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3049–27 | Road vs home | 42–3210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 9–3 MIA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.