Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (407 feet), Renfroe scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Mauricio singled to center, Ortega scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Vogelbach doubled to center, McNeil scored, Stewart scored and Vientos scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Vientos singled to center, Lindor scored, McNeil to third.2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Senzel homered to center (420 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Alvarez doubled to left, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Locastro scored on Williamson wild pitch, Lindor to second on wild pitch by Williamson, Nimmo to third on wild pitch by Williamson.1–1
- 3Locastro scored on Williamson wild pitch, Lindor to second on wild pitch by Williamson, Nimmo to third on wild pitch by Williamson.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Marte singled to center, Renfroe scored, Stephenson to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Fair odds
- NYM -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +3 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +27 Elo | NYM 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3042–33 | Road vs home | 38–3616th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 4–1 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.