New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-4
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil homered to right (373 feet).2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Wendle grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Sánchez scored, Hampson out at second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Vientos singled to center, Mauricio scored, Narváez to second.1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.4 – 4.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +4 | NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +22 Elo | MIA 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–44 | Road vs home | 43–328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 5–2 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.