Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Carlos SantanaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hampson scored on Payamps wild pitch, De La Cruz to third on wild pitch by Payamps.4–5
- 8Hampson scored on Payamps wild pitch, De La Cruz to third on wild pitch by Payamps.4–5
- 8Hampson scored on Payamps wild pitch, De La Cruz to third on wild pitch by Payamps.4–5
- 6Santana homered to center (400 feet), Yelich scored and Contreras scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Perkins scored on error, Contreras safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Bell, Yelich safe at third on error.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Fortes hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored, Sánchez to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Burger homered to left (373 feet), Arraez scored and Bell scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Fair odds
- MIL -101
- MIA +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −6 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +46 Elo | MIL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–36 | Road vs home | 44–3510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.