Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Jon BertiBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.0 IP, 9 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Berti homered to center (416 feet).16–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play16–1
- 6Yelich homered to center (430 feet), Adames scored and Turang scored.16–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play16–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 216–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 116–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking16–0
- 5Santana singled to center, Yelich scored, Santana to second.13–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking13–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 213–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking13–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 113–0
- 2Yelich homered to left (368 feet), Perkins scored.12–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 212–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 112–0
- 2Perkins doubled to right, Turang scored.10–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 210–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 110–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–0
- 2Turang singled to left, Adames scored.9–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 2Donaldson grounded out to shortstop, Frelick scored, Adames to third.8–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 2Frelick singled to center, Canha scored, Frelick to second.7–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 2Canha doubled to center, Contreras scored and Santana scored.6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Santana doubled to right, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 49%
- Fair odds
- MIA -103
- MIL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | MIL: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: JT Chargois: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +6 Elo | MIL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 9th of 3042–36 | Road vs home | 44–3410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.