New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nimmo homered to right center (395 feet).8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 8Gurriel singled to center, Bell scored, De La Cruz to third.7–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 37–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 8Baty homered to right (440 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Lindor grounded out to shortstop, Mauricio scored, Alonso to second.6–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Alonso singled to center, Nimmo scored, Mauricio to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Bell homered to left center (417 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Vientos homered to left center (417 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 4Hampson hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Alonso hit sacrifice fly to left, Mauricio scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -117
- NYM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +12 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +20 Elo | MIA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 26th of 3031–45 | Road vs home | 44–3310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 6–3 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.