Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Darius VinesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Acuña Jr. singled to right, Pillar scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 10Happ hit sacrifice fly to center, Tauchman scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 9Ozuna homered to left center (413 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Gomes singled to right, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Albies singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to second, Riley scored on error, Olson safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Hoerner.3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Happ homered to center (423 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Tauchman homered to right (402 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.1 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Darius Vines: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +62 Elo | ATL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–38 | Road vs home | 49–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.