Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Darius VinesPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams doubled to right, L. García scored and Young scored.9–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 7Ozuna homered to center (399 feet), Riley scored and Olson scored.9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 6Abrams grounded out to second, Alu scored.6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to third.6–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 5Albies doubled to right, Pillar scored, Acuña Jr. to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Alu hit sacrifice fly to center, Vargas scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Vargas tripled to right, L. García scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Meneses grounded out to shortstop, Abrams scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Riley hit sacrifice fly to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Riley homered to left center (434 feet), Albies scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.7 – 5.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +83 Elo | ATL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–28 | Road vs home | 32–4527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 5–2 WSH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.