Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ozuna singled to left, Albies scored, Riley to second.3–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to center (416 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Harper homered to right (368 feet), Rojas scored and Turner scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 5Arcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Olson scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–7
- 5Ozuna doubled to left, Albies scored and Riley scored, Olson to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Olson walked, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second, Albies to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 40–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pillar singled to center, Ozuna scored and d'Arnaud scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left (398 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.2 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.410th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.41st of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–36 | Road vs home | 47–263rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–7 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.