Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle WrightPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Schwarber homered to right (483 feet), Marsh scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (429 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Realmuto homered to left (417 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Harper homered to left center (392 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Rojas homered to right (360 feet), Castellanos scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Albies homered to right (401 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.3 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −14 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Kyle Wright: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +34 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 47–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–7 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.