Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Arcia scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 10Stott doubled to left, Rojas scored and Harper scored, Bohm to third.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Ozuna doubled to second, Olson scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Riley singled to right, Albies scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Lopez singled to left, Harris II scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Olson singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Castellanos homered to right center (381 feet), Marsh scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Castellanos homered to center (432 feet).2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Bohm singled to left, Schwarber scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -125
- PHI +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.2 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3039–37 | Road vs home | 48–263rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 4–8 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.