Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cory AbbottPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young reached on infield single to shortstop, L. García scored, Call to second, Millas to third.10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Millas singled to center, Kieboom scored, L. García to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–1
- 9Albies homered to right center (388 feet), Arcia scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 8Olson homered to left (371 feet).8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Albies singled to left, Rosario scored, Arcia to second.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 5Arcia singled to left, Harris II scored, d'Arnaud to second.6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Call homered to left (364 feet).5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3d'Arnaud singled to center, Harris II scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Harris II doubled to left, Olson scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.6 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3049–28 | Road vs home | 32–4426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–2 WSH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.