Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Olson and Wall scored, Murphy safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Suzuki.6–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to right (344 feet), Murphy scored.6–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Ozuna doubled to left, Riley scored, Olson to third.6–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 6Olson singled to left, Albies scored, Riley to second.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Pillar homered to left center (425 feet).6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 6Happ singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored, Hoerner to second.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Bellinger singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Suzuki tripled to center, Hoerner scored and Bellinger scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Mastrobuoni singled to center, Swanson scored, Gomes to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Gomes reached on infield single to pitcher, Bellinger scored, Swanson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Fair odds
- ATL -129
- CHC +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 15th of 3036–37 | Road vs home | 48–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.