Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Jackson RutledgePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murphy homered to center (398 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Young doubled to second, Alu scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Alu scored, Young to second, Kieboom to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Young reached on infield single to shortstop, L. García scored, Kieboom to second, Alu to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pillar hit sacrifice fly to center, Murphy scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.7 – 5.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +5 | ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · WSH: Jackson Rutledge: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +72 Elo | ATL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3051–28 | Road vs home | 32–4627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 6–2 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.