Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Kevin PillarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas homered to left (392 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 7Arcia singled to right, Riley scored and Olson scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–4
- 6L. García homered to left (369 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 6Wall homered to right (366 feet), Arcia scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 4Pillar homered to left (409 feet), Arcia scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Arcia doubled to right, Olson scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Olson doubled to center, Riley scored on error, Olson safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Abrams.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3L. García singled to left, Ruiz scored, Meneses to second.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Ruiz doubled to left, Abrams scored and Thomas scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- WSH +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.5 – 5.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +79 Elo | ATL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3051–29 | Road vs home | 33–4627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 6–3 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.