Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki singled to right, Hoerner scored, Bellinger to second.3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Riley scored on error, Rosario safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Assad, Ozuna to second.1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to center, Harris II scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Harris II doubled to center, Rosario scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Olson homered to right (371 feet), Riley scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Happ grounded into fielder's choice to third, Tauchman scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.9 – 5.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −15 | CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +52 Elo | ATL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.51st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 3036–39 | Road vs home | 50–273rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 2–3 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.