Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4
- Daniel PalenciaPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Taylor homered to left center (397 feet).0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Mitchell hit sacrifice fly to left, Canha scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Donaldson walked, Contreras scored, Adames to second, Canha to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 40–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Canha singled to right, Yelich scored, Contreras to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Fair odds
- MIL -121
- CHC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | 0 | CHC: Drew Smyly: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3037–41 | Road vs home | 48–327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHC 6–6 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.